Election Predictions Around Turkey

Diyarbakir

Diyarbakir, a city in the south-east of Turkey, has a mainly Kurdish population. It has received a high number rural migrants from villages emptied by the military and is known for its pro-Kurdish activism.

Reporter Ahmet Birsin of the local "Gün TV" says that ten days before the elections Diyarbakir is witnessing more activity.

The four independent candidates supported by the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP), Aysel Tugluk, Selahattin Demirtas, Gulten Kisanak and Akin Birdal, are conducting an effective campaign.

Birsin estimates that the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has increased its popularity after four and a half years in power, but that the local candidates have received no particular interest. The party has received sympathy because of the way the opposition CHP boycotted the presidential elections.

The Republican People's Party is also campaigning hard, but because of leader Deniz Baykal's comments denying a Kurdish identity, the party is not very popular.

The current debate on the death penalty is much-discussed in Diyarbakir and people react strongly to these provocative discourses.

In the 2002 elections, although the pro-Kurdish DEHAP had won around 56 percent of the vote, the AKP, with 15,96 percent won eight seats, and the CHP with 5.92 percent won two seats.

Birsin guesses that in these elections there will be four independent candidates, five AKP seats and one CHP seat. He does not think the nationalist MHP stands a chance.

Bursa

Bursa is at the other end of the country, in the West. According to local journalist Rüstem Avci, the parties most visible in the streets are the religious Felicity Party (SP), the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), the Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).

The nationalist MHP is said to be conducting the most effective campaign, exploiting the rise in nationalism in the region and appealing particularly to the young. As elsewhere in the country, the nominally social democratic CHP and the MHP are showing similarities in their discourses.

Leftist voters who have turned away from the CHP find themselves only with the choice of independent candidates.

The AKP is collecting votes with its discourse of victimhood, referring to the boycotted presidential elections.

The Felicity Party also has a wide and traditional base in Bursa.

In 2002, AKP won 12 and CHP 4 seats in Bursa. Avci estimates that this time the AKP and the CHP will win 5 seats each, and that the MHP and the Democratic Party (DP) will get two each, providing they pass the 10 percent election hurdle. (NK/EÜ)